Direct marketing in 2012 - the big picture
Chris Combemale, chief executive, Direct Marketing Association

The war on waste begins
In November 2011, the DMA signed a historic agreement with Defra committing the direct marketing industry to a series of tough targets to cut physical waste over the next three years. The commitment to cutting waste has been set out in a new Voluntary Producer Responsibility deal.

Consumer opt-outs will be under one roof
By 2014, the direct marketing industry will have to achieve a 25% increase on the industry’s current use of suppression files and retain established direct mail recycling rates. Forty per cent of all direct mail produced will have to conform to the requirements of a new industry environmental standard that will replace PAS 2020.

The first changes the direct marketing industry will notice will be the launch of a new website, scheduled for April 2012, that will bring all the consumer preference services together under one roof.

Unaddressed mail to be covered by opt-out scheme
The DMA will be extending the existing Mailing Preference Service for addressed mail to also include the opt-out service for unaddressed mail. The year ahead will no doubt see difficult trading conditions for UK businesses with the environment understandably low on their list of priorities.

The DMA believes embracing these environmental measures should come at no additional cost to business and will be providing its members with the help and guidance they need to do better business.

Data in 2012
Rosemary Smith, owner, Opt-4

Is more less?
As the political lobbyists at the DMA warn us that we may have to kiss goodbye to the good old electoral roll next year, a deluge of new data sources are hitting marketing departments.

The analysts are busier than ever mining social media data, appending demographics to build propensity models and analysing web behaviour. Rich though these data sources are, they are evidently less predictive than actual purchase or real engagement with the brand. If you see them waving in the data department next year, they might just be drowning.

Fear the regulator – appease the consumer
New cookie rules, a tough new Data Protection Directive in draft and an enforcement focus on commercial use of data are all certainties for 2012. The industry needs to do more to explain the “data value exchange” to customers who are increasingly sceptical about allowing their data to be used. Permission challenges won’t go away and opt-outs will continue to grow.

Mobile marketing in 2012
Mark Brill, mobile marketing strategist & CEO, Formation

The rise and rise of m-commerce
2012 will see the smartphone explosion continue; more than half the population will have one, and with it we will see an increase in m-commerce. 2011 was the year that mobile shopping established itself, with most high street retailers delivering mobile sites. They are already reaping the rewards, with many of them seeing up to 10% of their users purchasing through their phones.

It's a shop, Jim - but not as we know it
2012 will see smartphones challenging the concept of what a shop even is. We have already seen virtual pop-up shops from Tesco in Korea, John Lewis, Net A Porter and eBay. That trend will continue with new innovative ways to engage consumers.

In spite of some clever technology, messaging will remain at the heart of mobile and the use of mobile vouchers will continue to grow. However, new forms of these will begin to appear. Near Field Communication (NFC) or contactless will roll out in many handsets in 2012. Besides payment and ticketing, NFC will also be used for offers and vouchers.

Targeted, segmented texting will emerge
For messaging, brands will need to target the technology according to their user demographic. To reach teenagers they will need to find innovative ways to use Blackberry's messaging system as these handsets are increasingly popular with this young demographic.

Catalogues and e-commerce in 2012
Paul Keers, editorial director, Axon Publishing

Print catalogues aren't dead
Thanks to online shopping, printed catalogues are enjoying an extraordinary renaissance. Retailers are seeing that the status of a print publication (in a world where anyone can launch a website), the attention it can attract and the engagement it achieves, are all ideal partners to the directness and immediacy of online shopping.

They're getting more personalised
Catalogues will increasingly employ distinctive paper and design, to increase desire and retention. They'll be more personalised, drawing upon online shopping data to make content unique to a customer’s characteristics. Just look at Boden - a brand taking personalisation to new levels with their catalogues.

They're driving to rich digital content
There’s an exploration of QR codes, printed alongside catalogue items, to link to explanatory videos, or to take a shopper’s smartphone directly to the point of purchase online. Take a look at M&S who are doing increasingly impressive things in the digital catalogue arena.

They're improving their sales per page
The skills developed in catalogue navigation and page layout will be enhanced by tracking purchases, through unique URLs, to discern exactly which pages work, and to hone approaches for subsequent issues.

These techniques will be partnered with increasing creativity in tactile and visual design, to make catalogues enjoyable for the consumer, effective for marketers and essential for multi-platform retailers.

Social media in 2012
Katie Lee, owner, Miramus Media

Customer service goes social
Many companies already realise that social CRM is a low-cost and effective way to engage with customers. Customer service teams specialising in social media will become more popular, especially as companies start to make use of the increasingly sophisticated social media measuring tools to monitor success rates and tweak activity.

Social advocates become official 
As so many customers in social media are happy to promote their favourite brands and products, I think we’ll see an increase in more “official” customer brand advocates.

Everything will be multichannel
QR has been around for a long time and it has grown very slowly, which is why it is already looking fairly old compared to new services like Aurasma and Blippar. With these services, customers can scan over any image or logo and multimedia content will appear on your phone.

Meanwhile, on the sales side of things, packaging that includes RFID tracking chips will be making further headway in the coming year.
 
Long term strategy replace short term stunts
These higher end technologies are all well and good, but the single biggest change in the new year will be that more brands, having understood the power of social marketing and witnessed the growth in social shopping, will start to build a holistic, sustainable social and digital media strategy rather than relying on one-off stunts.

Creative execution in 2012
Patrick Collister, MMC ambassador & owner, Creative Matters

Mail is still in the mix, but with new ingredients
In 2012, the Olympics and the USA Presidential nominations will create momentum in the advertising market and help lift it out of a trough of despair, we hope. Marketers will continue to move away from 'traditional' media and will seek to explore social media better.

However, they will need to remember that the good old marketing mix is still with us even if how you mix it may have changed. Mail and social media, for instance, work brilliantly together as many government campaigns will bear testimony, especially the Change4Life programme.

Brands get responsible
Brands will develop a conscience and increase their green credentials. Cause-related marketing will continue to grow as brands realise that in a world of over-supply, people want to buy into brands before they buy the products. Learning how to acquire and share values will be the name of the game, many brands choosing to do it by espousing a cause.

Sustainability will continue to become ever more important as the big FMCG companies start creating new products which will need careful advertising because they will demand that people change their behaviours.

Creativity will fall victim to the marketplace
In terms of creativity, as media agencies continue to fight for the spoils with creative agencies, we will see a continuing decline in the creative quality of work across all media channels.

The UK's standing at Cannes and as measured by The Big Won rankings shows a decline, which will continue. This is a pity because the creative industries are responsible for 8.5% of GDP at the moment but as standards decline, so overseas investors will look elsewhere to start up new tech-based companies.

For the UK, learning that the last two centuries of growth may be at an end will take some massive changes in behaviour. The emerging markets have now emerged and we may need to start thinking of ourselves as a submerging market.

Investment in people will bring results
There will be winners and losers but the winners will be those who have now fully mastered digital technology and are able to create new platforms for their clients rather than new campaign messages.

In the UK, as always in a time of penny-pinching, training will be the first casualty. Those who do genuinely invest in their people will prosper.